Global Temperature Could Rise Above 1.5°c in 2024: BSC-CNS

On Tuesday, Spanish scientists revealed that their calculations indicate that the global average temperature is likely to exceed the warming threshold of 1.54 °C in 2024.

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Endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center - National Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) is currently one of the four prediction centers worldwide that provides climate forecasts for the next decade.

Following the records set in 2021, the group conducted decadal predictions, concluding that the annual average temperatures on the Earth's surface in 2024 could surpass those of 2023, a year in which the global average temperature already increased by 1.48 °C.

The BSC prediction system forecasts that the annual average temperature of the Earth's surface in 2024 could range between 1.43 and 1.69 degrees Celsius above the average temperature recorded between 1850 and 1900, i.e., recorded in the pre-industrial era.

With a probability of 74 percent, Spanish scientists expect temperatures in 2024 to be higher than in 2023. They also note that in the next 10 years, surface temperatures are projected to continue increasing due to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.

With respect to pre-industrial levels, global average temperatures could fluctuate between 1.49-1.79 °C in the 2024-2028 period and 1.67-1.94 °C in the 2029-2033 period, the BSC-CNS forecasts, adding that warming is primarily due to continuous emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels.

Additionally, the consequences of the El Niño phenomenon unfolding in the Pacific Ocean, expected to peak in the winter of 2023/2024, also contribute to exceptionally warm global average temperatures.