Argentina Holds Key Primaries for the Presidential Race

Approximately 35.4 million Argentinians are called to vote on Sunday in crucial primaries that will determine the direction of the race towards the October presidential elections. The electorate will head to the polls amid a complex economic scenario.

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These elections will decide the presidential pairings and the lists of candidates for national legislators who can compete in the October election. To qualify, they must receive at least 1.5 percent of the votes on Sunday.

Moreover, the primary results will clarify the true trends of the electorate, seemingly divided between the alliance Union for the Homeland and the opposition right-wing coalition Together for Change. However, this election offers a broad range of alternative choices.

These primaries feature a record number of registered candidates: 27 presidential and vice-presidential tickets, 3,782 aspirants for a seat in the Lower House, and 386 candidates for the Senate.

INTERNAL CONTESTS

Each political coalition can present one or more lists of candidates in the primaries. However, only the most voted list within each alliance will be eligible for October, as long as the coalition's combined lists attain at least 1.5 percent of the votes.

The most attention-grabbing internal contest is within "Together for Change," the main opposition alliance. Two candidates from the Republican Proposal party (PRO), which was part of former President Mauricio Macri's administration (2015-2019), will compete.

The competition is between Patricia Bullrich, a right-wing leader and former minister in the governments of Fernando de la Rúa (1999-2001) and Macri, and the current Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodriguez Larreta. Only one of them will become the presidential candidate.

In the ruling coalition, the leading candidate is Sergio Massa, the Economy Minister and leader of the Peronist "Renewal Front," the third-largest force within the "Union for the Homeland."

Massa, who took over the Economy Ministry a year ago amidst severe financial tensions, emerged as a candidate of "unity" after a power struggle between the faction of Peronism aligned with President Alberto Fernandez and the one aligned with Vice President Cristina Fernandez-Kirchner.

The campaign for the primaries has focused on the economy, which has been strained due to significant restrictions and imbalances. The country faces inflation around 120 percent on an annual basis, increasing poverty, and a hefty debt with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, in recent hours, the spotlight shifted to security due to the violent death of an 11-year-old girl in the province of Buenos Aires, which prompted the candidates to suspend their campaign closures.

UNVEILING MYSTERIES

This Sunday will unveil two key mysteries in preparation for the October election: who will be Massa's main rival in the presidential race and who will lead the primary with the highest number of votes.

It's also essential to gauge the actual level of support for the far-right camp represented by Javier Milei, and the traditional left-wing forces. Their electorates might or might not change their votes for October.

Furthermore, the simultaneous primary results in important districts for provincial and municipal positions that will be contested in October also carry weight in this Sunday's election.

One such district is the province of Buenos Aires, the country's most populous area, accounting for 37 percent of the national electoral roll. It's currently governed by Peronism.

The other case is the city of Buenos Aires, the country's fourth-largest district in terms of electoral weight, governed by Pro since 2007. In this Sunday's primaries, it challenges the primacy within the Together for Change coalition against the Radical Party.

There's also anticipation for the general elections - not primaries - in the southern province of Santa Cruz, a district with only 0.7 percent weight in the national electoral roll. However, it holds symbolic significance as the birthplace and stronghold of Kirchnerism since 1991.