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Argentine left-leaning presidential candidate Daniel Scioli, of the ruling Front for Victory (FpV), will win the second round of elections if the Oct. 25 ballot goes to a runoff, according to consulting firm Dicen.
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Various polls place Scioli ahead of the race. According to a survey published in La Jornada, the ruling party presidential hopeful has a 10 percent lead over his closest rival, right-wing Republican Proposal (PRO) party hopeful Mauricio Macri, with 38.4 percent of the vote.
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Currently leading Argentine polls, ruling party pres candidate Daniel Scioli indicates + trade openness & less protectionism if elected
— Rodney Gollo (@gollrrg)
October 14, 2015
Scioli, candidate of governing party FPV has a lead of about 10% in the polls and has little to gain from participating.
— Remi Lehmann (@remilehmann)
October 2, 2015
The news website Eldestape published another survey showing Scioli almost 15 percentage points ahead of Macri, although ultimately the presidential elections of Oct. 25 will head for a runoff between the two leading candidates.
According to Eldestape, Scioli leads the voter preference with 40.9 percent over Macri's 25.8 percent.
Source: eldestapeweb.com
But with about 10 days to go before election day, voter preference could shift, changing the outlook significantly.
Sergio Massa, who has seen voter preference in his favor grow substantially, stands 2.5 percent behind Macri, with about 23.3 percent of the voters preference.
To win in the first round, a candidate either needs to garner at least 45 percent of the votes, or at least 40 percent with a margin of at least 10 percent over their closest rival.
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The Dicen survey places the rest of the candidates far behind. Nicolas del Caño has 5.6 percent, while Margarita Stolbizer and Adolfo Rodriguez are set to receive less than 3 percent of the vote share each.
Dicen also surveyed a likely scenario in a runoff election Nov. 22, giving Scioli the victory with 51.5 percent against 41.7 percent for Macri, who is a former president of the soccer club Boca Juniors.
Aregentinian presidential candidate, Daniel Scioli, increased his lead in the polls over the past few weeks. Could he be our next president?
— Plaid Argentina (@Plaid_Argentina)
August 31, 2015
The consulting firm also said that President Cristina Fernandez and her ruling party candidate enjoy an approval rating of about 53 percent, while Macri has a 44 percent favorable opinion rating.
Fernandez will leave office with various achievements in her favor, according to La Jornada, as she took over the country 12 years ago when the economy was in a shambles. The president has been able to lift the country from the worst economic crisis in its history.
In some areas of the country, according to La Jornada, unemployment was up to 60 percent before Fernandez was sworn in as president. But in August of this year, official statistics placed unemployment at 6.6 percent. Argentina is now among the countries with less unemployment around the world, including many in the European Union.
Argentina's unemployment levels are currently at par with Canada, Australia, Brazil and Chile.
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