The oil sector requires cumulative investments of US$17.4 trillion by 2050 so as to meet rising global demand.

On March 7, 2017, at CERAWeek, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said to the industry, “invest, invest, invest. We are advocating that the investments need to be made and need to be made without delay. If I had to underline one key word here, it would be investment for the upstream.”

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The alignment between the positions of the IEA and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continued in an article published in conjunction with the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting, on April 10, 2018.

The IEA Executive Director wrote: “Regardless of climate policy, timely investment into oil and gas supply remains a cornerstone of energy security.”

By May 11, 2021, however, the IEA had changed its position. In launching the IEA Report, ‘Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector,’ the IEA wrote: “There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway.”

In an interview with The Guardian, on May 18, 2021, the IEA Executive Director stated: “If governments are serious about the climate crisis, there can be no new investments in oil, gas and coal, from now – from this year.” However, the IEA executed something of a pleasant U-turn this week.

On March 10, 2025, the IEA Executive Director told CERAWeek: “I want to make it clear… there would be a need for investment, especially to address the decline in the existing fields. There is a need for oil and gas upstream investments, full stop.”

Aside from the risk of whiplash that such severe yo-yoing between positions could cause, a serious point needs to be stressed. This issue pertains to the long-term health of the oil industry. The world needs unambiguous clarity on the realities of the future of supply and demand.

Agencies that recognize the responsibility that comes from offering analysis of the long-term perspectives of the industry should not be shifting positions or mixing messages and narratives every couple of years on this matter, particularly ones that were founded to ensure the security of oil supplies.

OPEC’s message has been consistent in saying that investments are the lifeblood of the oil industry. Underinvestment risks future energy security undermines supply and demand fundamentals and jeopardizes energy affordability. Inadequate investments mean consumers suffer. It also means producers and the global economy suffers.

The investment needs of the industry are significant. OPEC forecasts that the oil sector requires cumulative investments of US$17.4 trillion by 2050. This is to meet rising demand, and to counter decline rates, with the latter on average meaning we need to add around 5 mb/d every year just to stay at current overall supply levels.

For this reason, OPEC has repeatedly called for more investments in the oil industry. All our actions and activities, especially under the umbrella of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ have been to create an investment enabling environment. Such an environment requires sustainable stability in the oil market. This has been our clear focus, and our analysis is based on robust data and is grounded in reality.

Given the seriousness of the investment issue to the future welfare of the oil and energy industries, and by extension, the global economy, as well as the fact that the oil industry supports millions of jobs globally and is a crucial source of income for millions of families and communities, we would have hoped all energy stakeholders would be consistent in their messaging on this topic.

Time will tell about the full ramifications of the IEA’s calls to stop investing in new projects in the oil industry during the 2021-2024 period. Hopefully, the Agency can return to analysis based on energy realities and focus on its mandate of energy security. In doing so, the IEA can look to a willing partner in OPEC.

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