Redefining Energy Transitions
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By: Haitham Al Ghais
January 14, 2025 Hour: 2:31 pm
Today’s energy transition journey is not a realistic future for all countries and peoples around the world.
For some, our energy future is simple. It is a world where renewables dominate, or as some have spoken of an ‘Age of Electricity’ – a transition from one energy source to another, or in literal terms, the replacement of 80% of today’s energy mix that comes from oil, gas and coal.
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It is perhaps easy to be taken in by this. The term energy transition has become a ‘catch-all phrase’ for an intangible vision, and one that makes a radically different future seem normal. We move from a to b, and do not worry, the world will get there, just as it has supposedly transitioned in the past. It is a narrative some believe is set in stone, and one that should not be questioned.
This is wrong. We need to appreciate that today’s energy transition journey is not built on the real history of energy and is not a realistic future for all countries and peoples around the world. It could also lead to major challenges for energy security, energy availability and reducing emissions, and necessary investments not being made.
This has been evident in recent years on the back of ambitious and unrealistic net- zero policy agendas. It has led to populations pushing back on these proposals, as they comprehend the implications of them on their energy supply and in their pockets.
Much of the transition narrative we hear is based on an assumption about our energy past; that energy sources are locked in a never-ending competition and have constantly replaced each other: coal replaced wood, which was replaced by oil, which apparently will be replaced by renewables.
This is also wrong. Energy sources have not disappeared, in fact, they continue to complement and even depend on each other. Our energy past has not been a series of replacement events, and nor will our energy future.
Over centuries, as economies grew, populations expanded, and energy demand increased, it has been about energy additions. The huge expansion in coal consumption from around 1850 onwards saw demand for other materials multiply exponentially too.
Coal drove the industrial revolution, and wood, specifically timber, was essential for constructing a multitude of buildings and products. Wood was also crucial for the early oil industry’s infrastructure of derricks, tanks and barrels. The reality today is that global wood consumption continues to rise year-on-year.
The expanding importance of oil from the late 1950s onwards also led to increasing demand for coal, which is vital for steel production. Steel is a key material for oil exploration, production and transportation. The world consumes more than three times the amount of coal it did in 1960. In fact, today, global coal consumption continues to rise year-on-year.
So, what of renewables? It is important to stress that OPEC sees renewables as a core component of our energy future, and significant investments are being made by Member Countries to increase capacity. However, we also recognize that renewables are only a part of the future energy jigsaw.
Is it realistic to think renewables can meet current global energy demand and the expected global energy expansion alone, particularly given that wind and solar currently only supply around 4% of the world’s energy?
We need to appreciate that the development of renewables requires other energy sources. Oil products, such as fibreglass, resin and plastic are used in wind turbines and ethylene is used in the production of solar panels.
Oil is vital to the mining vehicles that are necessary to extract critical minerals upon which the production of renewables depend. And when it comes to wind farms, they would not exist without steel, which brings us back to the importance of coal.
Today, global oil consumption is rising year-on-year and the petroleum products derived from it continue to provide immense benefits to billions. Without them, cars, buses, trucks and lorries would be stranded, airplanes would be grounded, the construction sector would all but grind to a halt, food production would be devastated, and health products such as medical syringes, hand sanitizers, artificial heart valves, resuscitation masks and stethoscopes would be difficult to produce.
Despite reports of imminent peak oil demand, the world continues to consume more oil year after year. It is a trend we have seen from energies in the past, and we have no doubt this trend will continue in the future, given population expansion in the developing world, urbanization and economic growth.
It means we need investment, investment and more investment. At OPEC, we see global oil industry investment requirements of $17.4 trillion out to 2050; nearly $650 billion per year.
Given all this, is it perhaps time to rethink how we view the term ‘energy transition’? The past has shown us that our future has never been about replacing sources of energy, it has been about embracing new ones, and continually finding new uses for energy.
This has been driven by industrial, and perhaps most importantly, technological development. It has been about adding new energies and technologies, not taking them away.
It is clear we need all energies to deliver the energy security and energy availability we all desire, and all technologies to achieve the emissions reduction we all require. This seems a more prudent approach as we chart appropriate future energy pathways for nations and peoples around the world.
Autor: Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary
Fuente: OPEC
The opinions expressed in this section do not necessarily represent those of teleSUR