U.S. policy toward Venezuela ‘is too often dictated by South Florida politics,’ Juan Gonzalez admitted.

In an interview published by a local digital media outlet on Sunday, Juan Gonzalez, who served as Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere at the White House National Security Council during President Joe Biden’s administration, acknowledged that U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to revive the “maximum pressure” policy against Venezuela will only benefit China and could lead to a possible increase in migration.

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According to Gonzalez, the Venezuelan government managed to adapt to U.S. sanctions and find alternatives with the support of countries like Iran and China, “with a US$40-per-barrel discount compared to Brent crude.”

“Sanctions have diminishing returns—the more you use them, the harder it becomes to find new targets,” he said, questioning the validity of intensifying U.S. measures.

Regarding the humanitarian impact of the U.S. blockade against Venezuela, Gonzalez admitted that the sanctions imposed by Trump in 2019 undoubtedly contributed to accelerating migration.

More specifically, he admitted that the blockade on international sales of Venezuelan oil deepened the collapse of basic services and triggered the exodus of over 7 million Venezuelans. “It’s not a coincidence.”

He also asserted that this policy failed in its attempt to topple Nicolas Maduro’s government but generated an unexpected side effect.

“To be clear, sanctions can be a useful tool, but they are not a strategy. They don’t topple regimes on their own. The Trump administration’s approach seemed to assume that increasing humanitarian suffering would lead the population to overthrow the government. But that’s not what happened – people simply left,” Gonzalez said.

His claims are backed by international organizations’ data, as 90% of the increase in Venezuelan migration occurred after 2017, the year the U.S. intensified coercive measures against the Bolivarian nation.

Gonzalez debunked the idea that sanctions were foolproof, arguing that the black market for oil increased as Iranian tankers transported Venezuelan oil and sold it to China at discounted prices. That’s why, for Biden, the solution was to negotiate and grant Chevron a license to “bring oil out of the shadows” and prevent China from monopolizing crude at discounted rates.

In this context, Gonzalez argued that the Trump administration’s elimination of licenses in 2025 would only benefit Beijing: “The only clear winner here is China.”

The influence of the ‘Florida Factor’ in the U.S. foreign policy

One of Gonzalez’s strongest criticisms was directed at the influence of domestic politics on the U.S. strategy toward Venezuela. He stated that, under Trump, “policy was dictated by the dynamics of South Florida,” referring to the electoral weight of the Venezuelan and Cuban diaspora.

This criticism reflects a deeper divide: while sectors of the Democratic Party and moderate Republicans advocated for a negotiated solution, figures like then-Senator and current Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on relentless pressure.

Gonzalez revealed that the Biden administration had some friction with the Unitary Platform, a far-right organization led by Maria Corina Machado that “didn’t agree with us on the pace of sanctions.”

He also noted that while the Trump administration spectacularly failed in its bet on the total collapse of the Venezuelan government, the Biden administration also failed to achieve its objectives despite pursuing a “pragmatic approach” in its relations with the South American country. Gonzalez also attributed the failure of interventionist plans to the lack of a clear roadmap.

“The deeper challenge is that U.S. policy toward Venezuela… is too often dictated by the politics of South Florida rather than by a sober assessment of U.S. national interests,” he said, warning that in the absence of a realistic U.S. foreign policy, “China, Russia, and Iran will fill the void.”

teleSUR/ JF

Source: La Guacamaya

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