Super Election Year Reflects New Trends in Global Politics
Republican candidate Donald Trump. Photo: X/ @papel_em_branco
August 16, 2024 Hour: 11:08 am
The rise of conservative forces has become increasingly evident in various countries, among which is the United States.
This year, dubbed the “super election year” by international observers, has seen a significant rise in right-wing and far-right parties across the globe, while traditional ruling parties have suffered notable setbacks.
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Over 70 countries and regions hold key elections this year, two-thirds of which have already concluded, with results revealing a shift in voter sentiment driven by pressing economic and social issues like inflation and immigration, which are deeply resonating with the public and directly shaping election outcomes.
Analysts caution that this trend is adding new layers of uncertainty to both the domestic political landscapes of individual countries and global governance.
MAJOR SETBACKS OF RULING PARTIES
In the first half of the year, many traditional ruling parties or governing coalitions across the world unexpectedly lost power in elections, sparking widespread attention.
In India, the ruling party fell short of expectations. The final vote tally for India’s lower house of parliament, announced on June 5, showed that while the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance won a majority of seats, the BJP itself saw a significant drop in seats compared to the previous election and failed to secure a majority on its own. As a result, the BJP had to form a coalition government with other parties, posing potential challenges for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new term.
Similarly, South Africa’s election results, also announced in June, revealed a comparable trend. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) won the most seats in the national assembly but failed to secure a majority. This marked the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 that the ANC’s seat count dropped below 50 percent.
In France, the political landscape has evolved into a three-way split between the left, center, and right. In June, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for early legislative elections. After the second round of voting in early July, the centrist ruling party coalition, along with a left-wing alliance, successfully blocked the far-right National Rally from becoming the largest party in the National Assembly. However, with none of the three blocs securing an outright majority and the ruling coalition ranking only second in seat count, France’s political future remains uncertain.
In Britain, former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called for an early election in May, hoping to reverse his party’s declining popularity. However, the July results saw the Conservative Party, which had been in power for 14 years, suffer a resounding defeat. The main opposition Labour Party capitalized on public dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and secured a decisive victory, taking over the government.
ECONOMY AND LIVELIHOOD AS KEY FACTORS
The decline of traditional ruling parties reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction with domestic economic conditions. Issues related to the economy and livelihood, which directly impact voters, have become key factors in elections. On a global scale, geopolitical tensions resulting from the Ukraine crisis and the renewed Israel-Palestine conflict have disrupted trade and supply chains, leading to skyrocketing food and fuel prices in some countries and heightening public concerns and anxiety.
In India, unbalanced economic growth was a major cause of the ruling party’s weaker-than-expected election results. The country’s unemployment rate remains high, and the wealth gap continues to widen. According to a recent report from the World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics, by the end of 2023, the wealthiest 1 percent of India’s population held 40.1 percent of the country’s wealth — the highest concentration since 1961.
South Africa’s economy, once thriving with an annual growth rate of over 5 percent following the ANC’s rise to power in 1994, has stagnated over the past decade. In 2023, the country’s economic growth slowed to 0.6 percent, down from 1.9 percent in 2022. The economic slump, combined with high unemployment, electricity crisis, increasing wealth inequality, and high crime rates, has led to a sharp decline in support for the ANC.
In Europe, geopolitical tensions, slowing global economic growth, and weakened consumer confidence continue to raise alarms for the eurozone’s economy. Economists remain cautious about Europe’s economic outlook for the second half of the year.
Polls conducted by the UK-based Focaldata research firm revealed that “improving the economy” was one of the top concerns for voters during the European Parliament elections held in early June. Analysts note that against this backdrop, right-wing and far-right parties with nationalist and populist agendas have successfully expanded their voter base by capitalizing on public concerns over economic conditions.
RIGHT-WING PARTIES ON THE RISE
The rise of right-wing and far-right forces has become increasingly evident in election results from various countries, among which is the United States. The mainstream parties are seen to have failed in addressing economic issues and immigration, said Kalicharan Veera Singam, a senior analyst at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, adding that the far-right parties’ rise to prominence can also be attributed to the increasing “disillusionment” with mainstream parties, he said.
In the European Parliament elections held in June, while the center-right European People’s Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats maintained their positions as the largest and second-largest groups in the parliament, the influence of right-wing and far-right forces has grown.
Far-right parties in countries like France, Germany and Italy outperformed the ruling parties in the European Parliament elections, signaling a significant rightward shift in Europe’s political landscape.
According to Politico, voters’ anxiety over immigration was one of the key factors influencing the European Parliament election results. The refugee crisis had allowed far-right responses to migration to find increasing support across the European Union (EU), said Ariadna Ripoll Servent, professor for politics of the EU at the University of Salzburg.
Marta Lorimer, a lecturer at Cardiff University, pointed out that the resurgence of far-right forces had not happened overnight. “The National Rally’s success in the EU elections shows both how able the party has been to win the loyalty of a strong core of voters — and win over new ones — and how normalized the far right has become,” she said.
Analysts warn that this rightward shift in Europe’s political spectrum could introduce more uncertainty into the EU’s policies on immigration, aid to Ukraine, and green transitions.
teleSUR/ JF Source: Xinhua
