Taking advantage of the internal chaos, Israel has expanded its territorial occupation of the Golan Heights.

The situation in Syria has undergone a dramatic shift in recent days, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters declared on Sunday the liberation of Damascus and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government following two weeks of sweeping offensives.

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On Tuesday, Mohammed al-Bashir, head of the “Syrian Salvation Government” in Idlib formed in 2017 by the HTS and other Syrian militant groups during the Syrian civil war, announced that he has been tasked with heading a transitional government in Syria until early March 2025.

Meanwhile, Syria’s neighboring countries have emphasized that the nation’s future should be determined by the Syrian people themselves, urging a political solution to restore stability.

However, analysts pointed out that regional and external powers, each pursuing their own strategic interests, are increasingly involved in the power struggle, leveraging Syria’s internal political forces to extend their influence. These developments carry significant implications for Syria’s future and the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.

MAJOR PLAYERS

Amid the rapidly changing situation in Syria, a number of key regional and external powers have been quick to engage. Israel has publicly stated that it will not interfere in Syria’s internal affairs, yet it has simultaneously sought to expand its control over the Golan Heights.

On Tuesday, Israel’s military said that it had struck “most” of Syria’s advanced weapons in 350 airstrikes across the country, including in Damascus, over the past 48 hours. Israeli forces also seized a Syrian army outpost on Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights on Sunday, marking the first Israeli military presence in the buffer zone since 1974.

In response to the swift collapse of al-Assad’s government, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday that Türkiye will not allow Syria to become a conflict zone and be divided once again. “Any attack on the stability of the new Syrian government or the integrity of ancient Syrian lands will face both the Syrian people and us,” Erdogan said at a ruling party meeting.

On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Syria’s future, including its political and ruling systems, should be decided only by the Syrian people, stressing the necessity for dialogue among different segments of Syrian society to reach a consensus.

In response to Israel’s military actions in Syria, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday in a statement that Iran has strongly condemned Israel’s “frequent aggression against Syria’s infrastructure and its occupation of other parts of the Golan.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Monday that al-Assad was given asylum in Russia, saying that Russia is engaging in dialogue on Syria with Türkiye and other regional countries.

While the United States initially said it had no intention of intervening, the U.S. Central Command said on Sunday that it had struck more than 75 targets, including ISIS leaders, operatives and camps, to ensure that the armed group does not take advantage of the end of al-Assad’s rule. U.S. President Joe Biden also reaffirmed support for Syria’s neighbors, including Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Israel during the transition period, underscoring a commitment to countering ISIS and preventing its resurgence in the region.

GEOPOLITICAL CALCULATIONS

Analysts argue that the military actions and strategic engagements of these regional and external actors are driven by their respective national interests.

Israel sees the changing situation in Syria as an opportunity to expand its influence in the region. For years, Israel has been deeply concerned about Iran’s growing presence in Syria, and the collapse of al-Assad’s government could deliver a significant blow to the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.

Calling Israel a “winner” in the political shift in Syria, Mostafa Amin, an Egyptian researcher on Arab and international affairs, noted that “as a result of the developments in Syria, all of Iran’s allies have become weaker.”

Iran, meanwhile, finds itself in a particularly precarious position, analysts warned. The loss of its foothold in Syria would severely limit its ability to support groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key ally in its broader regional strategy.

“Bashar al-Assad was a critical link between Iran and Hezbollah. And now Iran has no more Syrian backup, so it’s a major development,” Germany’s DW quoted Eyal Zisser, an expert on Syria and vice rector of Tel Aviv University, as saying in a report.

It is believed that Türkiye is also eyeing the situation to enhance its regional influence. Amin said Türkiye might seek to bolster its position by capitalizing on the instability to strike against Kurdish armed groups, whom it considers a significant threat to its security.

Russia is focused on securing its military assets in Syria. RIA Novosti news agency reported that the leaders of the HTS fighters have guaranteed security to the Russian military bases and diplomatic establishments in Syria.

The United States, meanwhile, is focused on preventing the resurgence of ISIS and other extremist groups. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, said that the main priority is to ensure “that the fighting in Syria not lead to a resurgence of ISIS.”

Ali Moussa, an Iraqi political analyst said that the United States may reverse the disadvantages caused by its earlier withdrawal from the Middle East due to a shift in strategic focus, and this could benefit the incoming Trump administration in advancing the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and potentially with more Arab countries.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Despite the fall of al-Assad’s government, the future of Syria remains highly uncertain. The country’s complex ethnic and religious composition, which includes groups like the Syrian National Army, Kurdish militias, and various Islamist factions, means that the confrontation with al-Assad is not a monolithic force.

While the removal of al-Assad may have been a common goal, the question remains whether these factions can unite under a single political framework or whether they will fracture into further conflict.

Zhao Jun, an associate professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, suggests that the ongoing political struggles within Syria will trigger a new round of international and regional geopolitical maneuvering.

“From the current situation, the United States’ ability to assert control over the Middle East may be strengthened, while Iran is likely to face a new round of pressure from the United States and other Western countries,” he said, adding that Israel and Türkiye will be more active in the region, which could manifest through the internal political power struggles within Syria.

teleSUR/ JF Source: Xinhua

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