Not all EU states will be able to achieve ‘more preferential treatment’ from the U.S.

If new U.S. President Donald Trump decided to act on his threats to impose tariffs on the European Union (EU), it will be very painful for the bloc, said Miquel Vila, an analyst of the Catalonia Global Institute, a Spanish think tank that specializes in international affairs.

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The United States is Europe’s largest trading partner. The transatlantic trade reached an all-time high of 1.2 trillion euros (US$1.25 trillion) in 2021, according to data from the European Commission.

However, in his presidential election campaign and since taking office on 20 Jan. 2025, Trump has been critical of the EU and has demanded the bloc’s cooperation in different manners under the threat of imposing tariffs of between 10 and 20 percent on all imported EU goods.

“The strategy of imposing tariffs works until someone decides to stand up to him and take the tariffs, and then it comes down to who blinks first, but right now there’s no one in the EU who is willing to fight that battle,” Vila said.

Some EU states will “play their cards in order to get the most preferential treatment from the U.S.,” while others that are less willing to cooperate with the new U.S. administration “will have to deal with the consequences.”

“There are (EU) countries like Italy and Hungary looking to embrace the (policies) of Donald Trump’s government and to have a working relationship with him, while others like the Spanish government are taking more confrontational positions,” Vila said.

He suggested that the EU should take Trump’s threats seriously, as the new administration will be willing to strenuously pursue its interests by openly throwing the full “economic, political and military weight” of the country behind Trump’s agenda. But EU-U.S. trade relations are only one of the issues that Vila predicted will be high on agenda of Trump’s administration in the coming months.

“First of all, I expect to see an attempt to rebuild channels of negotiation and dialogue with China, secondly we’ll see a tensions increase with Europe, and we’ll also probably see a negotiated end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” stated Vila.

He sees Trump as first and foremost a business-minded leader whose approach is mainly transactional, meaning that alongside his threats, the new U.S. president will also generally be open to negotiations. However, the new Trump administration will be a complete break with the domestic and international policies of the past eight years, including Trump’s first term in office between 2016 and 2020.

Referring to the action plans announced by the U.S. administration, the analyst said the action “shows they have learned from their first time in office, and at the same time they want to clearly differentiate themselves from the past four years under the leadership of the previous U.S. President, Joe Biden.” 

teleSUR/ JF Source: Xinhua

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