Ukraine is Worried About the U.S. Elections
Data from a survey published by PBS, Nov. 4, 2024. X/ @IanSams
November 4, 2024 Hour: 2:20 pm
The power vacuum before the new president’s inauguration would leave Ukraine without crucial support from its key partner.
Any prediction about the course of the war in Ukraine largely depends on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and although a possible victory for Donald Trump appears riskier for Ukraine, neither the Republican candidate nor the Democrat Kamala Harris inspires much enthusiasm in that European country.
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Although U.S. support for Ukraine has slowed, with only 10 percent of the arms promised in April delivered so far, it remains Ukraine’s largest provider of military aid in absolute terms.
Ukraine has acted cautiously to avoid becoming a primary issue in the polarized U.S. election campaign and will work pragmatically with whoever comes to power, said Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament.
Harris: Few Signs of Change
Despite verbal assurances of lasting support, the policy of Joe Biden’s administration is seen by many Ukrainians as too cautious and harmful to their chances of winning the war against Russia.
Instead of clearly setting red lines for Russia, the U.S. is slowing military aid to Ukraine out of fear of escalation, which only encourages Russian President Vladimir Putin to intensify attacks, argues “Tatarigami,” a Ukrainian army officer and military analyst at Frontelligence Insight.
“It seems they are not interested in Ukraine’s victory or what Ukraine needs. They have no strategy,” Timofi Milovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, echoed on social media.
Although Harris said she would support Ukraine until victory, so far there are few signs that her approach would be radically different from Biden’s foreign policy.
The Democratic candidate has not commented on Ukraine’s request to be invited to NATO, and few expect her to allow Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia using long-range Western missiles. “The current approach spells death for Ukraine,” Milovanov emphasized.
The text reads, “U.S. presidential election: Trump is ‘more dangerous’ but Harris has ‘blood on her hands’, says Greta Thunberg.”
The Trump Lottery
Ukrainians view Trump’s apparent praise for Putin, criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and promises to quickly end the war without clearly backing Ukraine’s hopes with concern.
Volodymyr Dubovyk, a professor of International Relations at Odesa University, stated that the Republican candidate has consistently fueled anti-Ukrainian sentiment among his supporters, and it is unrealistic to believe he could suddenly change his stance if elected.
According to Dubovyk, it’s more likely that, to end the war, Trump might “simply stop supporting Ukraine and thus force it to meet Russia’s demands.”
On the other hand, reports that Mike Pompeo, Trump’s Secretary of State during his time in the White House, could rejoin his administration offer some hope that the former president might dramatically increase pressure against Russia and help Ukraine. Pompeo has advocated for a decisive increase in military support for Ukraine and stronger sanctions against Russia.
“Whoever becomes president will continue to support Ukraine, as this is in the national interests of the United States,” Merezhko argued, noting that Trump’s real stance on Ukraine would only become clear after a potential victory.
A Dangerous Moment
After the election, once Biden is no longer limited by political calculations, the outgoing president might allow Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles or make other significant decisions, Merezhko opined.
However, military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko warns that the months following the election could provide Russia with an opportunity to increase its military advances in Ukraine.
The power vacuum before the new president’s inauguration at the end of January would leave Ukraine without crucial support from its key partner amid growing pressure from Russia on the front lines, he said.
In any case, Ukraine must focus on improving its own effectiveness and hope for greater support from European partners, as it is unlikely that the next U.S. president will significantly increase support for the European country.
teleSUR/ JF Source: EFE
