Uruguay: Yamandu Orsi Leads in Voting Intentions
Election banners in Montevideo, Uruguay, Nov. 2024. X/ @ladiaria
November 22, 2024 Hour: 6:38 am
Several polling firms give the leftist presidential candidate an advantage over Alvaro Delgado.
On Friday, three days before the runoff in Uruguay’s presidential election, Broad Front candidate Yamandu Orsi leads the ruling party’s candidate, Alvaro Delgado, in voting intentions.
RELATED:
Uruguay’s 2024 Presidential Election: Key Candidates, Issues, and Runoff Insights
In the context of an electoral scenario that analysts have described as “uncertain” and “closely contested,” the polling firm Factum released a final estimate on Thursday, placing Orsi ahead of Delgado by 0.5 percent, a margin within the statistical margin of error.
Based on a sample of 1,011 respondents surveyed by telephone, with a margin of error ranging between +/-1.6 and +/-3.1 percent, the poll shows Orsi with 47.1 percent support, compared to Delgado’s 46.6 percent. According to the survey, conducted between November 15 and 19, 6.3 percent of voters said they would cast a blank or null vote.
“One must consider that 12.4 percent of people do not have a firm or decided vote for either option, meaning the area of contention lies within the high percentage of voters with weak preferences,” Factum warned.
The firm also noted that historical trends in Uruguay indicate that “shifts over short periods of time are becoming increasingly frequent” and that such variations “gain greater importance in binary contests like a runoff, where switching from one option to another has a double effect.”
In another survey conducted between November 14 and 20, the consulting firm Cifra identified a 0.6 percent lead for Orsi, who would garner 47 percent of the vote compared to 46.4 percent for Delgado. This poll also found 6.6 percent of responses divided among blank votes, null votes, and “don’t know” answers.
“Orsi has 39 percent of firm votes from people who say they are certain not to change their vote before Sunday, and an additional 8 percent of weak votes, from people who could change their choice or have only a weak preference for him. Delgado has 36.9 percent of firm votes and 9.5 percent of weak votes,” Cifra detailed.
The polling firm Equipos projected a 1.8 percent difference between the two presidential candidates, with Orsi at 48 percent and Delgado at 46 percent, in a survey with a maximum margin of error of 2.5 percent. “The differences fall within the survey’s margin of error, so it can be considered a technical tie between the two candidates,” noted Equipos.
teleSUR/ JF Source: EFE
