There might be up to 25,000 cases of COVID-19 in Northern California's San Mateo County (SMC), far more than the three-digit cases that are officially confirmed, the county's health officer said in a statement on Monday.
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Scott Morrow said that the data currently shared on the county's website is simply very limited as many characteristics of the coronavirus are unknown and the testing remains very constrained.
According to Morrow, the best estimate would be that approximately 2-3 percent of the county's population, around 15,000-25,000 people all over the county and in every community, are infected or have recovered from the infection. The number of people capable of transmitting the virus is under 1 percent or approximately 5,000-7,000 people.
"These numbers are likely to be more accurate than the numbers we are sharing on our website. I know that sounds ridiculous, but these estimates are better than the direct counts that I can currently provide you," said Morrow.
"For the data that is put up on our website, except for the hospital-level data, which is mostly accurate, I tend to look at it skeptically, specifically the cases and the deaths," he added.
Morrow also warned that lifting the restrictions on movement and gatherings too soon, or not in an incremental way, will diminish the gains that have been made.
He emphasized that further success relies on the "trade-offs of the most significant kind:" how to increase the immunity of the population while minimizing death with equity in mind, not overloading the healthcare system, and minimizing economic damage in immediate future.