Who better to calculate the disparaging effects of repealing the Affordable Care Act than two scientists with three decades of experience studying how changes in health care coverage affect death rates?
In a new piece published in the Washington Post, Harvard doctors David Himmelstein and Steffie Woolhandler have found that an Obamacare repeal will result in an estimated 43,956 deaths each year, even by the most conservative estimates.
“The story is in the data: The biggest and most definitive study of what happens to death rates when Medicaid coverage is expanded, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that for every 455 people who gained coverage across several states, one life was saved per year,” they write. “Applying that figure to even a conservative estimate of 20 million losing coverage in the event of an ACA repeal yields an estimate of 43,956 deaths annually.”
The scientists also say the repercussions of the appeal will affect more than those covered by the law, as Trump has also vowed to eliminate minimum standards for insurance coverage.
“Abolishing minimum coverage standards for insurance policies would leave insurers and employers free to cut coverage for preventive and reproduction-related care,” explain the doctors.
Although Trump issued promises last year to protect Medicare and Medicaid, those programs are threatened as well.
“A Medicare voucher program (with the value of the voucher tied to overall inflation rather than more rapid medical inflation) would worsen the coverage of millions of seniors, a problem that would be exacerbated by the proposed ban on full coverage under Medicare supplement policies,” write the doctors. “In other words, even if Republicans replace the ACA, the plans they’ve put on the table would have devastating consequences.”
Indeed, any replacement plan conjured by the Trump administration so far stands to be a flimsy one — and one that would exacerbate worsening inequality in the country´s health care system.