Donald Trump's promise to deport millions of undocumented people and build a wall along the United States' border with Mexico were among the campaign commitments that most fired up his base. Though the president-elect is trying to temper his rhetoric now that he was won the election, it is unlikely this base or the Republican party will allow him to backtrack on this promise.
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In his comments congratulating Trump on his victory, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, one of the top Republicans in Washington, said “achieving border security” was a top priority for incoming Republican-majority Congress.
After meeting with congressional leaders on Wednesday, President-elect Trump said, “We're looking very strongly at immigration; we're going to look at the borders. Very importantly, we're looking very strongly at health care and we're looking at jobs.”
In Washington, Republican talk of border security is code for deportations and greater policing, and in recent times a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.
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“Donald Trump made immigration restrictions a big part of his campaign. Now we will see if he follows through on his immigration plans. Some actions, like reversing President Obama's executive actions that protect millions of young immigrants from deportation, can be done unilaterally. Others, like building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, will require Congress to change current law or spend billions of dollars,” Stephen Yale-Loehr, professor of immigration law practice, Cornell Law School, told Reuters.
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There was some speculation that the Republican leadership would be unwilling to embrace Trump's promise to deport millions of undocumented people, but the fact that McConnell is on the same page as the president-elect signals there will be cooperation.
With an eye toward winning the votes of Latinos in future elections, House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan is in favor of immigration reform, though Ryan's post as leader of the lower house is not safe.
The Republican-controlled Congress is also likely eager to pursue a number of symbolic changes once Trump takes office in order to show their base that they were serious about change after eight years of a Democratic presidency.
Some Republicans may balk at the cost of building a massive wall on the southern border but Trump also maintained that Mexico would pay for its construction.
That is unlikely to come to pass but an unpredictable Trump may try to coerce Mexico by enforcing his plan by taxing remittances sent home by Mexicans in the United States. That would certainly be met with protest by the Mexican government, which may respond with retaliatory measures.
As for mass deportations, Mexico's deputy interior minister for migration said Wednesday they do not expect that to happen soon.
“It may well be that deportations of the estimated 6 million undocumented Mexicans increase but we don't think it will be a measure that will take place soon or happen quickly,” Humberto Roque Villanueva, the deputy interior minister for migration, told Reuters in an interview.
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Roque Villanueva also said Mexico stands ready to lobby the U.S. Congress and use all legal means possible to block Trump's plan for impounding remittances so that Mexico ends up paying for his proposed wall on the southern U.S. border.
“They wouldn't be retaliatory measures. They would be legal responses," he said. "We'll be ready for all the craziness.”
What happens during a Trump presidency may ultimately come down to mass mobilizing. Trump's base voted for a wall and deportations and could hit the streets to demand it happens.
Meanwhile, progressives in the United States, particularly places with large Latino populations, have already started demonstrating against President-elect Trump, vowing to prevent his draconian proposals from becoming reality.
“The election of a candidate who staked his presidential bid on racist, xenophobic and misogynistic rhetoric has left our country more polarized than ever … Many of Trump's immigration proposals don't square with our Constitution … we will continue (to) fight — in the courtroom, if necessary — to ensure that the rights of immigrant and refugee communities are protected across the country,” Marielena Hincapie, executive director, National Immigration Law Center, told Reuters.