Over the last 30 years, more than 59,000 farmer suicides in India can be linked to global warming, a recent study found. 

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Tamma Carleton, a researcher at the University of California - Berkeley, compared almost five decades worth of suicide and climate data and concluded that temperature variations in India may have “a strong influence” on suicide rates during the growing season.

Carleton found that high temperatures in the growing season reduce crop yields, putting economic pressure on India's farmers. Rainfall in the growing season is also an important factor, as suicide rates fall as growing season rainfall increases. But the same events have no effect on suicide rates during off-season, when few crops are grown. 

“It was both shocking and heartbreaking to see that thousands of people face such bleak conditions that they are driven to harm themselves,” Carleton said.

“But learning that the desperation is economic means that we can do something about this. The right policies could save thousands.”

India accounts for one of the highest number of suicides in the world. Of the 133,623 Indians who took their own lives in 2015, more than 12,000 of those were farmers and agricultural laborers, according to data from the National Crime Records Bureau. 

“Public dialogue has focused on a narrative in which crop failures increase farmer debt, and cause some farmers to commit suicide. Until now, there was no data to support this claim,” Carleton said.

The Indian government had established a US$1.3 billion crop insurance plan aimed at reducing the suicide rate, but Carleton’s findings suggest the government needs to do more to protect these farmers from major economic shortfalls under the growing threat of global warming. 

“Without interventions that help families adapt to a warmer climate, it’s likely we will see a rising number of lives lost to suicide as climate change worsens in India,” Carleton said.

According to one estimate cited in Carleton's article, India could experience an average temperature rise of three degrees Celsius by 2050. This warming will be accompanied by a rising number of lives lost to self-harm, Carleton projected. 

Under the Paris climate accord, which was adopted by 196 countries in 2015, world leaders committed to holding the average global temperature rise to “well below” two degrees Celsius. 

Despite recent U.S. withdrawal from the deal, many countries, including India and China, said they would continue to honor their commitments under the accord.

“The tragedy is unfolding today. This is not a problem for future generations. This is our problem, right now,” Carleton said.